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The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forward, rising by 35 points to 902 points, on the back of increased Capesize demand. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) was up by 152 points to 1,919. The rest of the submarkets thought were once again on the downside, most notably the Panamax market.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_single_image image=”12966″ border_color=”grey” img_link_large=”” img_link_target=”_self” img_size=”214 × 100″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/1″][vc_column_text disable_pattern=”true” align=”left” margin_bottom=”0″]According to the latest report from shipbroker Fearnleys, on the Capesize market there were “glimpses of improvement following days of softening, and consequent surge of conficence for the big ships as major miners keep taking july loaders on the important Brazil/China ore route. Average daily earnings are still down some some usd 2k (to usd 12800) w-o-w, but with the present push on fronthaul iron ore, near-term recovery is expected. Volume on the Waust/
China trade remains unimpressive, with freight rates struggling to break the usd 8 pmt barrier and tonnage supply in excess. Paper has taken a hit, with period activity consequently being very limited”.
On the Panamax front, Fearnleys noted, “what a week! We are very close to breaking the all time low record and TA ´s are down 62% w-o-w and now fixing at ard Usd 1k and even below 0 at voyage bss. It is simply not enough cargoes and the activity is extremely low. Chrts entering the market with their cargoes are fixing within 20 minutes and owners are probably better off dropping the anchor at this point. In the Pacific we see the same tendency allthough the levels are a touch higher than in the Atlantic. Pac rounds are now being fixed at ard Usd 3,5-4k. Well below Opex. The period market is fairly active and good kamsarmaxes are able to fetch ard Usd 9k for shorter periods over the summer”, said the shipbroker.
Finally, “the Supra-Handy market is experiencing the same market slow down as its bigger sister markets however not to the same extent. We see TA rates decline with 11,54% w-o-w much caused by a growing tonnage list and few fresh cargoes. The coal and iron ore sales seems to be gone as the majority of cgos being shipped is grains. Also in the Feast the market remains weak even though we see more cargoes entering the market, it is just too many ships competing for the same cgos. Indonesian rounds to Thailand are being fixed at ard Usd 6k + Usd60k GBB bss APS delivery while NoPac rounds are being traded in the region of Usd 9,250+Usd 300k GBB for Supras. Several owners now want to fix out their ships for short periods at a bit healthier numbers than the spot market is showing, but there are not that many takers”, Fearnleys concluded.
Meanwhile, in a note released this week, Commodore Research & Consultancy said that “recently released data shows that average daily crude steel production at China’s key steel mills hit a record high of 1.833 million tons during the first ten days of this month. Previously, daily crude steel production at China’s key steel mills during the last eleven days of May averaged 1.767 million tons – which was a high level, although down from the previous record of 1.824 million tons seen during the first ten days of May. It is very encouraging that Chinese steel production has set another record this month. As we have continued to stress, Chinese steel production has remained very strong during the last several months. While Chinese steel production normally comes under a small amount of pressure in June (while still remaining at robust levels), it is very encouraging and not surprising that production has set a record this month. As we have been discussing in our Weekly Dry Bulk Reports and Weekly China Reports, demand for steel in China has remained firm as the government continues to green light new infrastructure projects and works towards further stimulating the economy. In addition, low iron ore prices have allowed profit margins at Chinese steel mills to improve significantly since the start of this year. Global demand for Chinese steel exports has also remained robust, even as global steel production has also set a new record this year”.
It added that “record steel production means record iron ore consumption. Overall, Chinese iron ore consumption has remained robust this year and Chinese iron ore imports have continued to surge. Chinese steel mills continue to purchase a record amount of iron ore imports this year, with Chinese iron ore imports this year up by approximately 20% from last year’s record level. Going forward, Australian and Brazilian iron ore production is set to surge even further and steel mills will continue to happily purchase low-priced high quality iron ore from Australia and Brazil. At the same time, more Chinese domestic iron ore mines will likely suspend iron ore production as they can’t compete with Australian and Brazilian mines with much lower costs. Seaborne iron ore trade is poised to remain robust”, Commodore concluded.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
